By: Karan Palsaniya, National Co-convener Central Universities And South India Convener Of ABVP
Polling date for Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram is 28th November and for Rajasthan & Telangana 7th December. Results will be declared on 11th December.
The assembly election in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram, Rajasthan and Telangana setting the stage for a high-stakes battle in the five state before 2019 final. In the Semi-Final of these five states election main opponent are BJP & Congress.
The Corresponding strength of these state assemblies are, 90 of Chhattisgarh, 230 of Madhya Pradesh, 40 of Mizoram, 200 of Rajasthan and 119 seats of Telangana. In the five state election BJP is ruling party in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and opposition in Mizoram and Telangana.
Chhattisgarh will undergo the second phase of election on 20th November, whereas In the first phase, 18 seats in south Chhattisgarh affected by left wing extremism has undergone through the polls.
Why is it lost battle for Congress?
In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh BJP is ruling party since last fifteen years and battling anti- incumbency sentiments likely to retain the power due to week opposition and leadership, whereas in Rajasthan voters always prefer alternative govt. The scenario has changed in past few days after the deceleration of candidates list of Congress and BJP in poll bound states.
In Rajasthan congress had clear majority lead is looking weaker and in loosing position. Strong opposition is coming from Jat and Meena community. At the same time congress is divide in different camps, i.e. Sachin Pilot, Ashok Gehlot, Rameshwar lal Dudi, C.P. Joshi and others. More than 79 places tickets distributed to less effective leaders through camp politics. Different camps played important role in ticket distribution in Rajasthan which is resulted in favouritism for individual allegiance.
In such scenario neither BJP nor congress will be able to get the clear majority. Independent candidates will play decisive role to form the govt. for example Shahpura constituency independent candidate Alok Beniwal seems comfortable and confident for win. Jat community and Meena community is always in tussle with Gurjar community. Rajputs, Brahman, and Baniya communities are traditionally BJP supporter except some places in this election. Because of Sachin Pilot projection as important face these community seems bit uncomfortable with congress. It will play decisive role to float the voters.
Is development core to five states election with Special reference of Rajasthan?
It is very important question to be asked. In 2014 when I was travelling parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan saw that voters were optimistic and rise above caste and class. All I can say that it was an election which has transcend the boundary of caste and class. Development was the core of election. Modi was the combo of development icon and champion of Hindutava politics.
Voter of Rajasthan gave huge mandate to Modi. Now the scenario has changed with ruling of Vasundhara Raje in the state and dictatorial attitude (Voters Perception) but image of Modi is intact. Whereas 2018 election is more based on politics of caste than politics of development. Pride of caste is back where whole Rajasthan after inception is waiting for pure Jat origin Chief Minister with 17% population of state. So idea of development is illusionary and caste politics is the core of this election.
Congress couldn’t understand the concept and equation of caste and lost the ground while distributing the tickets. It is the result of many faces of Chief minister. At least Jat community have option to adopt or accept Vasundhara Raje Sindhya as daughter in law. So Vasundhara has acceptability as CM than any other. All I can say independent candidates are going to play major role in the election.
In Madhya Pradesh BJP is confident to win 130 seats whereas in Chhattisgarh it is expecting more seats than last time. At the same time in Mizoram it has eyes to form the govt. along with regional parties. Rajasthan its too early to say but still we can predict tough fight between INC & BJP.
In Telangana congress formed alliance with TDP, Telangana Jana Samithi (TJS) and communist party of India is main opponent of TRS(Telangana Rashtra Samithi). BJP is trying hard in Telangana to increase vote bank. Results of these election are going to be win win situation for BJP.
